4/23/09

Who needs pitching?

With another dozen runs on the board today, the bashin' Redbirds took their seventh straight home victory and Win No. 11 overall on the young season.

The pitching staff suffered another bad day, including a scare for Kyle Lohse, who will have his knee examined after feeling a pop in the 5th inning. In the post-game press conference, the skipper sounded optimistic Kyle would take his next turn as scheduled...

But who needs pitching, anyway?

Through the first 16 games of the season, just a hair under 10% on the books, the Cardinals lead the Majors in batting average and sit in the Top 5 for all other major offensive categories.

With the newly-stached Rick Ankiel heating up as Brian Barden and Joe Thurston fall back to Earth, and Ryan Ludwick and Yadier Molina proving they're more than one-year wonders, we're starting to see what kind of club this is going to be.

In 16 games, the 'Birds have tallied 100 runs. That's a 6.25 runs per game clip, also good enough for tops in baseball.

Projected over a full season, this team is on pace to surmount the elusive 1,000-run plateau.

And it's not like the pitching staff has been worthless. Considering we've lost Chris Carpenter and the completely reshuffled bullpen, the 4.375 runs allowed per game is tolerable.

Push that average out to 162 games, and you've got a season-ending run differential of about 300 runs.

What's the math mean?

Run differential isn't an end-all and be-all stat, but it certainly has to inspire some early confidence in a club that was picked by many to finish in the lower half of the National League Central.

Estimates using the runs scored and runs allowed figures to come up with a record for the year put us in the 108-win/.671 win percentage range today. That's an ungodly large number. For perspective, the 2004 MV3 juggernaut season netted 105 regular season wins.

We can't ignore the small sample size, and it's hard to imagine this club keeping up these trends while shuffling so many untested arms into the rotation.

Historically, only a handful of teams have topped 1,000 runs scored in a season.

But how can you not like our chances after this start?

-30-

No comments:

Post a Comment