Back in 2004, when the destiny-bound Boston Red Sox broke their historic futility streak, skipper Tony LaRussa made sure his 105-win Cardinals club got A ring.
The NL Championship jewelry was nice, but he wanted it to be a motivator to get THE ring.
With the magical 2006 postseason run following a middling regular season, the Cardinals accomplished the improbable. They got THE ring.
Fast forward a couple 365s, and this off-season has brought us yet another Ring. If nothing else changes, the recently signed free agent lefty reliever named Royce Ring may be the only one we get this year.
For starting off throwing around the term aggressive, it’s hardly been an off-season worth the hype from Cardinals General Manager John Mozeliak.
He’s proven yet again that the Cards are really awesome at coming in second for free agents. Recent history shows that can be a really good thing (see: A.J. Burnett, Jason Schmidt, et al.). President Dollar Bill Dewitt is probably playing a big part in this trend, too.
But with oh-so-close pursuits of the Brian Fuentes and Matt Holidays of the world starting to stack up again this year – and with fewer fallback options of equal caliber – an underwhelming off-season could turn into an underwhelming regular season.
To this point, LaRussa hasn’t done much ARFing, but it’s hard to believe the animal lover won’t show some teeth soon as affordable upgrades get more affordable, and the front office’s true intentions for 2009 become clear.
There’s still time on the clock, and plenty of talent is still available, but No. 10’s one-way ticket to Cincinnati could be Mo’s last acquisition if it keeps up.
Since I launched this blog halfway through the off-season, I don’t want to rehash all the little moves so far, but I’ll hit the highlights.
Going, going, gone…
While not all of these guys have signed elsewhere, chances are good the Opening Day roster will not include their familiar faces. Roughly organized in order of importance.
Braden Looper- Why he won’t be back – His on-one-start-off-one-start pattern from 2007 held him back again in 2008, but now a proven innings eater, Looper will command a longer-term commitment at a higher price than DeWitt is willing to pay. Replaceable at a lower cost in the shape of a converted Kyle McClellan, returning Mitchell Boggs or reemerging Blake Hawksworth.
- Biggest reason he’ll be missed – Team-leading 199 innings on a very mediocre staff was bettered by his ability to hit the bat with the ball and get quick outs.
- Why he won’t be back – After a career year in which he was the mid-game rally stopper, Springer wouldn’t come as cheap as 2008, and when you’re competing with retirement and fatherhood instead of a higher bid…you have to wonder if his heart would be in it for one more turn.
- Biggest reason he’ll be missed – Hardly any surefire alternatives for a middle relief strikeout specialist are left on the squad. We can only hope we have the old late-2006 Josh Kinney back to fill the void.
- Why he won’t be back – Signed with the Small Bears for a couple hundred thousand more than what we offered, making some dickish comments on the way out. After a career year, he was getting expensive for a utility guy but worth it to LaRussa, who essentially saved the guy’s career after the trade from Colorado brought him in.
- Biggest reason he’ll be missed – As just OK as he was everywhere, there’s something to be said for versatility, and LaRussa has to have a guy like that on every one of his clubs. Hearing talk already that Joe Mather and Skip Schumaker could see time in unfamiliar places to help fill in.
- Why he won’t be back – Signed an overpriced two-year, $5 million deal to "bring stability" to the SS position out in B-More, proving former Cubs President Andy MacPhail still doesn’t know how to run a baseball team.
- Biggest reason he’ll be missed – Who’s going to hit ninth now? No seriously, his defense returned to closer to its former Gold Glove form. Hopefully, Khalil Greene’s will do the same this year, and we won’t miss Mr. IzTu at all.
- Why he won’t be back – Busy trying hippy-California-surfer-dude alternative treatments to free his shitty shoulder after traditional medicine left him feeling like he still sucked at baseball two years and two major operations later.
- Why he’ll be missed – No more awful leftover Walt Jocketty contracts for Mo to easily point to when looking for examples of payroll inflexibility.
Also departing and worth at least a mention, 2B Felipe Lopez who would have been nice to keep around on a one-year shot, RHP Mark Worrell for his surprise three-run home run, RHP Kelvin Jimenez as another such AAAA guy who never earned LaRussa’s full trust, and LHP Ron Villone who gave us a solid 2008 before he was forced to start facing righties.
Welcome back
Just after the season came to a close, Jason LaRue was quick to sign a one-year deal for 2009.
One of the LaRussa guys, Jason gives the club an insurance policy that the game-calling and run-controlling elements Yadi has in spades won’t totally disappear when he needs a day off. And as LaRue proved when the youngest of the Catching Molinas was out with a concussion, he can hold his own for longer stretches, too.
Also, awesome facial hair, something Yadier does not have in spades.
Josh Kinney, after a long absence for Tommy John and a scary broken elbow that understandably pushed recovery back a bit, finally returned to the rubber and put up some zeroes to cap 2008.
Let’s hope there are many more appearances just like those in 2009. With the likely departure of Russ Springer, Josh will be greatly needed.
Welcome aboard
Former San Diego Shortstop Khalil Greene and former Tampa Bay lefty reliever Trever Miller headline the short list of additions so far this off-season.
Greene, who recently committed to wear No. 4 on his back, has huge potential, and he cost just the odd sidearm/underhand-slinging Mark Worrell and a player to be named later.
With a career slugging percentage around .440 before a big drop last year and a solid history of providing moderate pop before hitting 27 out in 2007, chances are he’s got something better than his 2008 numbers showed still in him.
In addition, Khalil’s batting average for balls put in play (BAPIP) was a measly .255 in 2008, so he was pretty unlucky. When bad luck comes with a bad approach at the plate in the biggest ballpark in the league, it can all spiral out of control pretty quickly.
A fresh start in a fresh city… I predict a .265/.280/.425 (BA/OBP/SLG) line with 18 HR, 75 RBI. And with the help of Jose Oquendo, a really solid defensive return to form a la Cesar Izturis in 2008.
Significant upgrade over Izturis at a ridiculously affordable price if he makes good on his promise… Khalil made just $4.5 million in 2008 and is due $6.5 million in 2009, part of which San Diego will cover under the trade terms.
I love getting a legit bat at SS again, and Khalil could provide a nice boost to the six- or seven-hole. Still wondering who will hit second, but with his free-swinging ways, it hopefully won’t be Khalil.
Still dizzy from a World Series appearance with the Rays, Trever Miller got what was reported as an early two-year offer from Mo and the Cards. After a strange delay and reworking of his contract (presumably based on the not-so-reassuring results of his physical), Miller signed a low-dollar, incentive-laden one-year deal.
His reputation for stranding runners and consistently getting the biggest lefty bats in the league out make him a huge asset in a LaDunc bullpen.
Some lesser-known newcomers that could play bigger roles for the first time in their careers include the aforementioned Ring, Charlie Manning (LHP), a waiver wire pick from the Nationals; and Ian Ostlund (LHP), another low-dollar signing with a Spring Training invitation.
The fact that they all these guys take the mound from the left side shouldn’t be a surprise. The gaping hole left by Tyler Johnson’s disappearing act and Randy Flores sudden inability to throw strikes made serious upgrades necessary. Tip of the cap to Ron Villone for taking on more burden than he signed up for, but his numbers really showed it.
Hopefully, Miller is healthy enough to be the go-to guy on the left side, and someone in this nice little competition can elevate their game and prove Mo smarter than everyone on the Internet. I certainly hope I never have to long for Arthur Rhodes.
One other signing of note, Joe Thurston (INF) will be in competition with Brendan Ryan, Tyler Greene, Jarrett Hoffpauir and Brian Barden, for the coveted scrappy white utility guy role once held by famed scrappy white utility guys Bo Hart, Stubby Clapp and Joe “Little Mac” McEwing.
Raising expectations
As a number of Redbirds look to make significantly more in 2009 than 2008, expectations continue to climb for these young veterans.
Arbitration-eligible Rick Ankiel, Ryan Ludwick, Chris Duncan, Todd Wellemeyer and Brad Thompson will return to more money. Just how much for 2009 will be decided by an independent arbiter if an agreeable extension can’t be reached before then.
Certainly interesting cases for each of the first three:
- Rick the Stick’s comparables through this point in their career are former pitcher Babe Ruth and...who else??? After a combined 43 dingers between Memphis and St. Louis in 2007, he jacked 25 and collected 71 RBI while he OPS-ed at an .843 clip over 413 ABs in 2008. He was also severely limited during a third of those at-bats by an “abdominal strain” that turned out to be a sports hernia.
- Ludwick’s already long career includes just one full big league season, which started in 2008 as a LaRussa platoon and ended as a LaRussa removal by pinch hitter that left him single away from a .300/30/100 line.
- And Young Dunc’ was expected to complete his breakout last year when leftovers from an “abdominal strain” (also see Ankiel, Rick) and serious back problems kept him out for most of the year.
The performance of these three outfielders dances a beautiful dance with the other big unknowns of starting pitching and the bullpen entering 2009.
If all three guys play well, one of them easily nets us a back-of-the-rotation starter to put Joel Pineiro out of his misery.
If any of them falter, CF phenom Colby Rasmus could squeeze his way onto the Opening Day roster and also force a move sooner than later. That kind of deal could bring platoon-only Skip Schumaker into the mix of trade options.
Wellemeyer, the Kentucky Colonel, is a perfect example of when being cheap pays off. Who would have imagined this addition from the Cubs and Royals bullpen scrap heap would result in a No. 3 starter at any point in the future.
And that’s what he ended up being for much of last year, behind Adam Wainwright and Kyle Lohse.
So much of 2009 success depends on the health of the right arm of Chris Carpenter, but the middle of the rotation is sound with guys like Wellemeyer.
Todd took the ball 32 times and came up just short of Looper for the innings-pitched race. With a sub-4.00 ERA and limited base on balls, if he can just keep guys in the yard a little more often in 2009, I have no complaints about this guy in the middle to back end of the rotation.
Expect him to get a decent raise come arbitration time.
“The rest is still unwritten”
What? A guy can’t rock the Natasha Bedingfield?
With 34 days remaining until pitchers and catchers report – and keeping in mind that Kyle Lohse was signed last year on March 14, in the middle of Spring Training – it’s clear the last lines of this story can’t yet be inked.
Mo has his work cut out for him, and the way he’s been sputtering in recent interviews, he’s starting to feel the heat from the fan base.
If the worry is the economy is too tight for fans to buy tickets, and what had become a given 3,000,000 annual attendance at Busch is no longer a sure thing, he can only make that a self-fulfilling prophecy by doing nothing.
Would an Andy Pettitte or Randy Wolf really be a big draw or win us any more game than a Kyle McClellan?
Would a Takashi Saito really be any better than young guns Chris Perez or Jason Motte? God strike me down if Izzy is seen as an improvement.
Anyone else anywhere willing to pay Tino Martinez…I mean Adam Kennedy…anything to play baseball for them?
And if so, do we have the financial freedom to upgrade to the O-Dog, Orlando Hudson, at second base?
“…reaching…for something in the distance…”
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